My 360 finally arrived at the repair center:

Device: Xbox360 Hardware
Serial Number: 209540163106 
Repair Status: Device Received at Service Center 
Carrier Name: UPS
Carrier Tracking Number: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 

It took a little over three business days to get there. "There" being "here". A nice, long distance away from Chaska.

If it takes 3 days to ship back, that means it'll need to ship by about Sept. 21st in order to get it back in time for Halo 3. That means they've got about 10 days to get the damn thing repaired.

Who knows what their backlog is.

I'm pessimistic about this.