http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/bob_mckenzie.asp
This column gives just a wee little bit of insight as how the 2005 NHL draft might be conducted in the wake of a cancelled season. The main point of the article was to describe really how random the draft could end up this year since it will be a 100% lottery. The International Scouting Service (ISS) conducted a mock draft where each team took part in the lottery. Essentially, each team got at least one ping pong ball, earned additional ping pong balls for consecutive years they weren't in the playoffs, and lost ping pong balls for each year that they received a 1st overall pick.
In the mock draft, four teams (out of 30) had the largest number of balls (three). In the end, a team with only one ball picked first, and the three teams with four balls picked 2nd, 13th, 14th and 20th. Two "high powered" teams in recent years ended up with top 10 picks.
I don't know how final or concrete the ISS's lottery system is compared to the real draft that will take place, but I hope that it is not as random as the article describes. Teams that have done poorly for many consecutive seasons such as Florida, Buffalo and Pittsburgh should be guaranteed a top 10 pick. Either that or increase the potential to get more balls based on recent performance. With only 30 teams, it's no wonder their mock draft ended up looking so screwy and unfair. If they really want to give some weight to the poorer performing teams, they should be giving them 5-8 balls.
This sounds like a question from a past Statistics exam: "There are 30 different colors of balls. In a bag, there are 7 green balls, 7 red balls, 7 yellow balls, 5 white balls, 5 orange balls, and 1 of every other color. What is the probability that a green ball will be chosen from the bag?"
Hopefully somebody at the ISS is asking questions like that. What percent chance do they want a historically poor performing team to get the #1 pick? To get a top 10 pick? What percent chance do they want an excellent performing team to get a high pick? Those questions can be easily answered through common probability computations (although I don't have any references available to check it myself). Maybe they've answered those questions and have made their decisions about the number of ping pong balls each team gets. If so, then I think they've made the wrong decision because teams that don't deserve a high pick will get one.